Life is a bet

[london1967]

Following the collapse of Zoom Airlines and of XL (the third largest travel company in the UK), betting on which airline will be next to go is all the rage: Next Airline To Go Bust? 

It is also possible to stake bets on a number of other current affairs categories, including the next Archbishop of Westminster (Catholic) and the next Pope (PaddyPower is based in Ireland and this may explain a lot),

Bono is given 1000/1 to become the next Pope; the same odds as the fictional Father Dougal McGuire from Craggy Island (one of the priests from "Father Ted").

Comments

[gorkabear.livejournal.com]

Alitalia...
I'm also kind of disturbed to see Spanair there too (as well as Vueling and Clickair)

[london1967.livejournal.com]

The only surprising thing about Alitalia is that it hasn't gone bust yet! LOL!

[gorkabear.livejournal.com]

Well, there's a long tradition of avoiding Italian companies being purchased by others. For instance, Autostrade was to be bought by Spanish Acesa and they blocked the operation. The same happened with up to two banks and Alitalia by Air France-KLM. It's not that Italian companies are bad, but consolidation seems the way to go. Artificially blocks won't fix the problem.

[london1967.livejournal.com]

Will they ever learn? LOL!

It's funny that the centuries old saying of "Francia o Spagna, purché se magna" doesn't seem to apply to the world of business.

[gorkabear.livejournal.com]

Well, there's plenty of Italian-owned companies here. As I said, it's not that Italian companies are bad (I prefer them to an American one) but in such these businesses...

According to my colleagues, it doesn't matter. We're going to be bought out by China very soon!

[susobear.livejournal.com]

Heh... Well, from one guy that works on a betting exchange:

This might seem trivial, BUT all these things are called prediction markets, which are a bit stronger than simple polls, as people have stakes on the outcome ( they can win or lose money, and actually trade their positions in the market ).

These prediction markets, are a tool that many financial and credit companies use ( now in a recession climate more than ever ) to establish the risk of companies.

So, right now, after checking the market view and evolution in paddypower ( ugly interface ), a credit company would feel like investing in Alitalia would be a very bad idea. That, added to the current financial position that Alitalia might hold, becomes a really nasty burden for the italian company. So, even being able to see people's opinion about a company affects this company.

In the age of the internets, you can bet on ANYTHING, ANYTIME, with ANYONE, with ANY ODDS and at ANY VALUE. Scary for those prediction markets.


Shameless plug: http://sports.betfair.com/

[london1967.livejournal.com]

Oh I (kind of) know, but it just doesn't feel quite right to bet on companies going bust!

I'll look at your site when I get home (betting sites - including PaddyPower, and the National Lottery -are blocked at work).

The following request: ' Request ' has been denied by the firewall.
Reason: one or more categories denied helper='WebBlocker.1' details='Gambling'
Method: GET
Host: sports.betfair.com

[susobear.livejournal.com]

Tsk.... I'll have to sit down with your Websense clone to lecture it on the differences between gambling and betting :)

It's kind of creepy... but it's a reflect of reality. Whenever people see those news about XL going south, they are going to start wondering "Who's next?". And I'm sure some people are going to bet on that with their friends, however creepy the bet is. Now extend this to your 6,000M best friends :)

I am now betting that people can come with WAY creepier events to bet on than the one about airlines going bust.

Anyone starts? :)

[london1967.livejournal.com]

Oh I'm sure of that! All sorts of bets!

[allanh.livejournal.com]

Hm. In North America, I would have guessed United would be more along the lines of 5-1 or 10-1. Surprising.

[london1967.livejournal.com]

Really? Oh my! We have a flight booked with them (Toronto to Boston)!

[allanh.livejournal.com]

I don't think they're going to stop flying in the near future ... but there are some signs that they're feeling a bit desperate, such as:

- Applying fees to everything you can think of, and a few things I hadn't considered (very long list, too long to write here)
- Reducing the number of flights and seats available
- Raising fares
- Pushing hard to grab international first/business customers (highest profit margin) away from non-USA carriers
- Expiring frequent flyer miles faster (this started a couple of years ago, actually)
- Laying off employees at multiple levels (several rounds)
- Using smaller planes (Canadair Regional Jets) and crews operated by other carriers (Skywest, a/k/a "United Express"). It's nearly impossible to find a United-operated United flight SFO-SLC these days, for example. (Ditto Delta.)
I'm guessing United has about 2 more years before it has to seriously consider merging with another airline in a deal that won't set off antitrust alarms. They've been trying to buy US Airways, but regulators say there's too much systems overlap.

If I were going to wave a magic wand, I'd merge United and American. United has a heavy West Coast presences, American has a heavy East Coast presence.

United and Delta might be made to work.

On the downside ... any merger of United with anyone else is going to require giving up huge numbers of redundant airport slots, gates, and routes for the US government to approve the deal.

Eh.

My fantasy is that Southwest, Virgin, or JetBlue buys up United...or at least start buying up UAL routes, gates, takeoff/landing slots, etcetera.

[scunnerred.livejournal.com]

Could you imagine Father Dougal McGuire as Pope? The mind boggles!

[london1967.livejournal.com]

It'd be rather refreshing! LOL!